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7.2 Abstract

Outcome Expectation Moderates Relationship between

Political Ideology and Voting Choice in Thailand
Arnond Sakworawich, Ph.D.
24
25
Suphat Vongsukhum-amorn, M.Sc.
This research aimed at investigating voting decision factors of Thais whether they vote
based on their own political ideology or outcome expectation on election or both factors.

Dataset was from national survey on public opinion towards member of the House of

Representatives’ election in 2011 (before election) with a sample size of 1,500 collected jointly
by National Statistical Office and King Prajadhipok Institute. Chi square test of independence

and Log-linear model analysis reveal that Thais voters make a decision based on both their

own political ideology and outcome expectation on election.
Hence, candidates and parties must emphasize on communicating their political

ideology for effective political campaign as well as convincing the voters to trust in winning

an election. Future research should focus on political communication strategy that would be
effective especially for small and medium-sized parties.

Keywords: outcome expectation, political ideology, voting choice, moderator variable

24 Director of Master of Science and Doctor of Philosophy Program (Business analysis and Data

Science) , Graduate School of Applied Statistics, National Institute of Development
Administration, Email: [email protected]

25 Research Assistant, Intelligence and Information Center, National Institute of Development

Administration