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20 การศึกษาความเคลื่อนไหวทางการเมืองและพฤติกรรมการเลือกตั้ง
สมาชิกสภาผู้แทนราษฎร 2562 จังหวัดสงขลา
13 September 1992 until 3 July 2011. These elections the Democrat Party has always held a monopoly
popularity in all constituencies but the 24 March 2019 election could no longer be explained by party
identification concept due to the enormous political changes in Songkhla that caused the
Democrat Party, which had previously been MPs in all 8 constituencies won the election only
3 seats.
The results of the studies answered the objectives of the research. Political,
economical and societal contexts in this election, which is 8 years away from the last election,
has many changes from the past. Resulting in political activities and leading to changes in the
voting behavior in Songkhla. Instead of having ties with the Democrat Party like in the past,
as explained by the party identification concept but voters changed voting behavior according to the
explanation of rational choice theory. The political context, such as MMA electoral systems has
made the most candidates in all constituencies so that voters more options to choose their
representatives than in the past. At the same time, there is a problem of unity within the
Democratic Party both at the national level and constituency level, resulting in rarely cooperation
in the election campaign. In the economical context, economic deterioration relates to the boredom
of the former Democrat MPs, who voters has believed are not acting as a representative for
bringing the problems of the people to the government. Therefore voters want to change MPs and
political parties. While voters who received state welfare card fear that if the Palangpracharath
Party (PPRP) and General Prayut unable to form government and become prime minister, it will
cause the termination of the card. Therefore, many voters support PPRP that has party platform on
state welfare card which is the same policy of government. In the societal context, this election is
the first time that social media is used to campaign for candidates and political parties. The social
media is highly efficient and effective, especially among young people who are first voters, almost
of them deeply impress in Future Forward Party (FFP) so that the candidates in every constituency
receive a high level of votes that affect to Democrat Party.
From various contexts as mentioned above causing a development that is different from
previous elections and also the behaviors of Songkhla’s people have changed. Electoral results are
the PPRP won 4 seats, Democrat Party won 3 seats and Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) won 1 seat while
in the past the Democrat Party won every constituencies since the 13 September 1992 election.
Keywords: Songkhla’s election 2019, rational choice theory, party identification.